The core of President Donald Trump’s new strategy is to force difficult choices upon every major actor involved in the Ukraine conflict. His plan is designed to eliminate ambiguity and force every nation to declare its position through concrete, painful actions.
He forces a choice upon his NATO allies: are you with us completely, enough to sacrifice your energy security, or not? There is no middle ground. The demand for a full oil ban is a loyalty test that forces a definitive answer.
He forces a choice upon China: is your “no limits” partnership with Russia worth risking your entire trade relationship with the West? The threat of massive tariffs is designed to make this choice stark and unavoidable.
And ultimately, he forces a choice upon Russia: is the continuation of your war in Ukraine worth the complete economic strangulation that will result from your isolation? By removing all of Russia’s economic safety nets, he aims to make the choice to continue the war an impossible one. This strategy of forced choices is a high-stakes attempt to precipitate a final resolution.
