For centuries, strategy in business and government has been guided by a mixture of historical precedent, expert opinion, and gut instinct. A new North Star is now rising to guide these decisions: the objective, data-driven forecasts produced by artificial intelligence. The performance of a British AI in a recent competition is a powerful illustration of this new navigational tool.
ManticAI’s eighth-place finish in the Metaculus Cup showcased its ability to serve as a reliable guide through the fog of the future. The competition required predicting 60 complex events, and the AI’s success demonstrates its power as a strategic asset.
A tool like ManticAI offers several advantages as a “North Star.” First, it is constant and persistent, tracking dozens of issues around the clock. Second, it is objective. As its co-founder highlighted, the AI often disagrees with human consensus, providing a check against the biases and groupthink that can lead strategies astray. It follows the data, not the crowd.
Third, it provides a clear, quantitative guide. Instead of vague assessments, it produces specific probabilities, allowing leaders to make more informed decisions about risk and resource allocation. This brings a new level of rigor to the strategic planning process.
While this new North Star is not infallible—human judgment is still needed to read the “weather” and navigate the final miles—it provides a fixed, reliable reference point that has never been available before. The organizations that learn to navigate by this new light will be the ones best equipped to handle the challenges of the future.
